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“2018年对于全球经济来说十分不平凡,这是很多人眼中艰难的一年。全球经济局势景气不足,国际局势扑朔迷离,地缘政治局势复杂、全球去杠杆进程如火如荼、贸易谈判徘徊不前… 2019已经到来,很多2018年我们面临的困难并未解决。我们应该如何适应新的一年?如何在扑朔迷离的经济环境中寻找新的增长和方向?金融界特邀经济学家与您一起探路2019,问道未来!”

嘉宾介绍
本期嘉宾:詹姆斯汉密尔顿

加州大学圣地亚哥分校经济学教授

主要观点

美国经济增速放缓不可避免 但经济结构尚可

美联储需观察其他央行动向 降息预期或有转折

中美合作将产生最大利益 中国经济转型较为成功

美国经济增速放缓不可避免 但经济结构尚可

金融界中美关系的复杂形势也影响着世界经济格局。在你看来,目前中美之间的贸易争端是否只是中美之间的问题?

詹姆斯汉密尔顿:这不仅仅是美国与中国关系的问题。特朗普总统还威胁对我们的另一个主要贸易伙伴墨西哥实施新的贸易制裁,以试图迫使墨西哥采取更多行动阻止移民来到美国。在与加拿大和欧洲的贸易政策上也出现了紧张局势,而加拿大和欧洲是美国传统上的盟友。

金融界:特朗普政府期间,美国经济保持强劲增长势头。你认为美国经济增长的核心动力是什么?在未来的十年里,美国能否依靠其目前的核心增长能力保持其在世界上的领先地位?

詹姆斯汉密尔顿:2016年开始美国的一系列减少对美国企业的监管和限制,在美国经济增长中发挥了一定作用。一个更大的因素是,2008年金融危机造成了如此多的产能过剩和失业。市场在自我修复的过程中花了很长时间才使这些人和资本恢复工作。而现在的就业结构也保持了相当健康的水平。只要失业率继续下降,结果就是美国经济的增长速度可能会超过适龄工作人口的增长速度。但毫无疑问,美国的经济增长速度相比,以前有所降低,这个趋势也将持续特朗普总统强调的4%的每年国内生产总值增长率并不现实。高于平均水平的增长期现在即将结束,美国经济的增长速度将比过去十年慢。但美国的情况仍然比欧洲好,欧洲面临了经济增速降低和改革困境的多重围攻。

美联储需观察其他央行动向 降息预期或有转折

金融界:目前,世界主要经济体的经济增长呈现下降迹象,中央银行采取了宽松的货币政策。你预计美联储在今年内降息的可能性有多大?美元走强趋势将持续多久?

(引文:美联储主席鲍威尔周二表示,如果特朗普政府的贸易冲突威胁到美国经济,美联储准备做出回应。投资者将他的言论解读为美联储可能在今年晚些时候降息的信号。

鲍威尔的言论有助于推高股价,道琼斯工业平均指数当天收盘上涨超过500点,涨幅2%。鲍威尔在芝加哥召开的美联储会议上说:“我们正在密切监测这些发展对美国经济前景的影响,我们将一如既往地采取适当行动,以维持经济增长。”

鲍威尔没有明确表示美联储会怎么做。但人们越来越期待美联储在年底前至少降息一次,甚至可能降息两次或更多,部分原因是贸易战的后果。有人担心,由于报复性关税削弱了美国出口,美国下个月的扩张可能面临越来越大的衰退风险,这将成为有史以来最长的一次扩张。-华盛顿美联社)

詹姆斯汉密尔顿:我不希望美联储降息,除非我们看到经济基本面或贸易形势恶化的具体证据。从历史来看,降息周期的开启往往对应经济萧条的开启。而目前从经济数据和多方面统计来看,这并不是我们得到的信息。一些分析师预计,这种情况可能会很快发生,但就我个人而言,我还没有看到这种情况发生的证据。

在数据恶化之前,我认为美国利率将保持不变。当然,美国需要同时观察其他央行的动向。只要欧洲央行坚持负利率政策,美元对国际投资者仍将是一种有吸引力的货币。

中美合作将产生最大利益 中国经济转型较为成功

金融界:中国经济增长也在放缓。中国政府正试图通过降低产能和扩大内需来解决这个问题。在你看来,这是正确的方法吗?如何协调世界第一大和第二大经济体的发展?

詹姆斯汉密尔顿:毫无疑问,中国需要向缓慢增长的道路过渡。随着适龄工作人口的增长,以及中国商品销售经济的增长,中国的历史增长率无法持续。但中国政府已经采用很多有效的措施,抑制这个情况的发展,比如去产能拉动内需,优化经济结构等。

我认为,中国寻求从出口导向型经济向自给自足型经济转变的途径是非常明智的。这些积累的优势已经转化成了中国强大的经济韧性,我个人希望美国和中国能找到建设性合作的途径。我们有很大的共同利益。当一个经济体比较脆弱时,它会伤害另一个经济体。


下面为访谈部分内容:

JRJ: The complex situation of Sino-US relations also affects the world economic pattern. In your opinion, is the current trade dispute between China and the United States a problem of just China and USA?

 

Hamilton: This is not just an issue of U.S. relations with China. President Trump has also threatened new trade sanctions against Mexico, another of our major trading partners, in order to try to force Mexico to take more action to stem immigration into the United States. There have also been tensions over trade policy with Canada and Europe, other major trading partners who have traditionally been allies of the United States.

 

JRJ: The U.S. economy has maintained a strong growth momentum during the Trump Administration. What do you think is the core driving force of U.S. economic growth? In the next decade, will the United States be able to maintain its leading position in the world by relying on its current core growth power?

 

Hamilton: President Trump’s efforts to reduce regulation and restrictions on U.S. businesses played some role in U.S. economic growth. A bigger factor was there was so much excess capacity and unemployment as a result of the financial crisis in 2008. It took a long time to get those people and capital back to work. As long as the unemployment rate continued to fall, the result was that the U.S. economy could grow faster than the growth rate of the working-age population. I think that period of above-average growth is coming to an end now, and the U.S. economy will grow more slowly than it has over the last decade. But the U.S. is still in a better situation than Europe.

 

JRJ: At present, the economic growth of the world’s major economies has shown signs of decline, and central banks have adopted loose monetary policies. How likely do you expect the Fed to cut interest rates during the year? How long will the strengthening trend of the US dollar last?

 

(Citation: Chairman Jerome Powell said Tuesday that the Federal Reserve is prepared to respond if it decides the Trump administration’s trade conflicts are threatening the U.S. economy. Investors read his remarks as a signal that the Fed will likely cut interest rates later this year.

 

Powell’s remarks helped drive up stock prices, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average ending the day up more than 500 points, or 2%。

 

Speaking at a Fed conference in Chicago, Powell said, “We are closely monitoring the implications of these developments for the U。S。 economic outlook and, as always, we will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion。”

 

Powell didn’t explicitly say what the Fed would do。 But expectations are rising that the Fed will cut rates at least once and possibly two or more times before year’s end, in part because of the consequences of the trade war。 There is concern that the U。S。 expansion, which next month will become the longest on record, could face growing risks of a recession as retaliatory tariffs weaken U。S。 exports。 — WASHINGTON (AP))

 

Hamilton: I do not expect the Fed to cut interest rates until we see some concrete evidence of deterioration in economic fundamentals or the trade situation. Some analysts are expecting that could happen relatively soon, though personally I don’t see the evidence of it happening just yet.

Until the data worsen, I think U.S. rates will stay where they are. As long as the European Central Bank sticks with its negative interest rate policy, the dollar will remain an attractive currency for international investors.

 

JRJ: China is also experiencing a slowdown in economic growth. The Chinese government is trying to solve this problem by deleveraging its capacity and boosting domestic demand. In your opinion, is this the right way? How should the development of the world’s first and second largest economies be reconciled?

 

Hamilton: There is no question that China needs to make a transition to a slower growth path. With no more growth of its working-age population, and without more growth in the economies to which China sells its goods, China’s historical growth rates can not continue. I think China is very wise to be looking for ways to transition from an export-led economy to an economy that is more self-sufficient.My personal hope is that the U.S. and China will find ways to work constructively together. We have significant interests in common. When one economy is weak, it hurts the other. 


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